Stocks Advance as US Extends Iran Ceasefire

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.65%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.70%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.79%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are up +0.68%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are up +0.80%.

Stock indexes are moving higher today, with the Nasdaq 100 posting a new record high.  Stocks found support today as President Trump, after the markets closed on Tuesday, indefinitely extended his ceasefire with Iran.  Strong corporate earnings results are also lifting stocks after GE Vernova, Boeing, and Masco reported better-than-expected Q1 earnings.

Planned talks between the US and Iran were called off on Tuesday, and President Trump said the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will remain. Iran said it will not reopen the strait or restart peace talks until the US blockade ends.

Stocks added to their gains, and crude oil prices fell from their highs today after Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency reported that Iran's UN representative said, "We have received some sign" the US is ready to break the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, without elaborating. He added that "as soon as they break this blockade, I think the next round of the negotiations will take place in Islamabad." 

WTI crude oil prices (CLM26) are up more than +1% today as the Strait of Hormuz remains essentially closed, threatening to deepen the global energy crisis.  Iran seized two ships today in the strait for “endangering maritime security,” and the UK Navy said Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps gunboats fired upon two other cargo ships.  The blockade could exacerbate global oil and fuel shortages, as about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transits through the strait.  Iran has recently been able to export crude oil during the war, with exports of about 1.7 million bpd in March.

US MBA mortgage applications rose +7.9% in the week ended April 17, with the purchase mortgage sub-index up +10.1% and the refinancing sub-index up +5.8%.  The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell -7 bp to 6.35% from 6.42% in the prior week.

Earnings season continues this week.  So far, 82% of the 71 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings have beaten estimates.  Q1 S&P 500 earnings are projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.  Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around +3%, the weakest in two years.

The markets are discounting a 1% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.

Overseas stock markets are mixed today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 fell to a 1-week low and is down -0.09%.  China's Shanghai Composite climbed to a 5-week high and closed up +0.52%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 rallied to an all-time high and closed up +0.40%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are up by +3 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is down by -1.1 bp to 4.281%.  T-notes found safe-haven support after Iranian gunboats fired on two ships and seized two ships today in the Strait of Hormuz, potentially leading to escalation of the US-Iran war.  Supply pressures are limiting gains in T-notes as the Treasury will auction $13 billion of 20-year T-bonds later today.  Also, today’s +1% rally in WTI crude oil is raising inflation expectations, a bearish factor for T-notes.

European government bond yields are moving lower today.  The 10-year German bund yield is down by -1.1 bp to 2.993%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is down by -1.7 bp to 4.868%.

The German government today cut its 2026 GDP forecast to 0.5% from 1.0%, due to the effects of the US-Iran war.

ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said there is no urgency for the ECB to raise interest rates from 2%, as the current data does not yet justify a move.

ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus said the ECB shouldn't raise interest rates at its April meeting, but he can't rule out a rate hike later this year.

UK Mar CPI rose +3.3% y/y, right on expectations.  Mar core CPI rose +3.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of +3.2% y/y.

Swaps are discounting a 13% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.

US Stock Movers

Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are climbing today, boosting the broader market.  ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) is up more than +4%, and Micron Technology (MU) and Western Digital (WDC) are up more than +3%.  Also, Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) are up more than +2%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Analog Devices (ADI), Microchip  Technology (MCHP), Broadcom (AVGO), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are up more than +1%.

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are moving higher today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) up more than +3% at a 2.5-month high.  Strategy (MSTR) is up more than +9% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, and Coinbase Global (COIN) is up +6%.  Also, MARA Holdings (MARA) and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) are up more than +5%, and Riot Platforms (RIOT) is up more than +4%. 

GE Vernova (GEV) is up more than +13% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q1 revenue of $9.34 billion, above the consensus of $9.11 billion. 

Masco (MAS) is up more than +10% after reporting Q1 net sales of $1.92 billion, stronger than the consensus of $1.84 billion. 

Boston Scientific (BSX) is up more than +5% after reporting Q1 net sales of $5.20 billion, stronger than the consensus of $5.17 billion.

Twilio (TWLO) is up more than +5% after Bank of America Global Research double-upgraded the stock to buy from underperform with a price target of $190. 

Boeing (BA) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting Q1 negative adjusted free cash flow of -$1.45 billion, smaller than the consensus of -$2.61 billion. 

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) is up more than +4% after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.50, better than the consensus of $2.10, and raising its full-year adjusted gross margin forecast to 67.5%-68.5% from a prior estimate of 67%-68%, above the consensus of 67.4%. 

Amneal Pharmaceuticals (AMRX) is up more than +4% after boosting its full-year adjusted Ebitda forecast to $740 million-$770 million from a previous forecast of $720 million-$760 million, stronger than the consensus of $748.6 million.

Sonoco Products (SON) is down more than -6% after reporting Q1 net sales of $1.68 billion, weaker than the consensus of $1.70 billion, and saying it sees full-year adjusted EPS at the low end of a $5.80 to $6.20 range, below the consensus of $5.92. 

TE Connectivity (TEL) is down more than -10% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q2 net sales of $4.74 billion, below the consensus of $4.77 billion. 

NVR Inc (NVR) is down more than -6% after reporting Q1 EPS of $67.76, weaker than the consensus of $77.01.

Vertiv Holdings (VRT) is down more than -2% after forecasting Q2 net sales of $3.25 billion to $3.45 billion, the midpoint below the consensus of $3.40 billion.

United Airlines Holdings (UAL) is down more than -2% after cutting its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $7.00 to $11.00 from a previous estimate of $12.00 to $14.00, the midpoint below the consensus of $9.08.

Earnings Reports(4/22/2026)

AT&T Inc (T), Boeing Co/The (BA), Boston Scientific Corp (BSX), CME Group Inc (CME), Crown Castle Inc (CCI), CSX Corp (CSX), Elevance Health Inc (ELV), GE Vernova Inc (GEV), Globe Life Inc (GL), International Business Machine (IBM), Kinder Morgan Inc (KMI), Lam Research Corp (LRCX), Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS), Masco Corp (MAS), Moody's Corp (MCO), NVR Inc (NVR), Otis Worldwide Corp (OTIS), Packaging Corp of America (PKG), Philip Morris International Inc (PM), Raymond James Financial Inc (RJF), Rollins Inc (ROL), ServiceNow Inc (NOW), Southwest Airlines Co (LUV), TE Connectivity PLC (TEL), Teledyne Technologies Inc (TDY), Tesla Inc (TSLA), Texas Instruments Inc (TXN), United Rentals Inc (URI), Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT), Westinghouse Air Brake Technol (WAB).